Northern Arizona
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
104  Melanie Townsend SO 20:04
305  Paige Gilchrist FR 20:38
324  Rolonda Jumbo SO 20:40
425  Carolyn Bethel FR 20:50
641  Kelly Fruth SO 21:10
819  Jamie Shrader JR 21:21
872  Vanessa Estrada FR 21:25
924  Grace Adams-Handy JR 21:28
958  Kylee Kieser JR 21:31
1,036  Caroline Hogardh SO 21:35
1,040  Shayla Freeman SO 21:36
National Rank #53 of 340
Mountain Region Rank #4 of 20
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 2.8%
Most Likely Finish 4th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 0.2%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 89.0%
Top 10 in Regional 99.9%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Melanie Townsend Paige Gilchrist Rolonda Jumbo Carolyn Bethel Kelly Fruth Jamie Shrader Vanessa Estrada Grace Adams-Handy Kylee Kieser Caroline Hogardh Shayla Freeman
Cowboy Jamboree 09/28 867 20:04 20:27 21:24 20:52 21:11 21:40 20:57 21:35 21:43
Pre-National Invitational (Blue) 10/19 941 20:19 20:42 20:45 21:15 21:07 21:21 21:28
Big Sky Championships 11/01 1047 20:59 20:44 20:53 21:11 21:03 22:04 21:33 21:23
Mountain Region Championships 11/15 961 20:48 20:15 20:50 21:01 21:43 21:28 21:41
NCAA Championship 11/23 20:47





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 2.8% 27.0 667 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2
Region Championship 100% 4.1 146 0.4 31.2 40.6 16.9 6.4 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Melanie Townsend 80.5% 90.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
Paige Gilchrist 5.8% 160.4
Rolonda Jumbo 4.6% 167.8
Carolyn Bethel 3.0% 194.5
Kelly Fruth 2.8% 232.7
Jamie Shrader 2.8% 241.5
Vanessa Estrada 2.8% 244.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Melanie Townsend 8.4 0.5 1.8 3.0 7.2 7.7 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 9.7 7.5 6.6 5.0 3.9 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1
Paige Gilchrist 24.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.4 4.3 4.5 3.9 4.7 3.9 4.2 4.2 5.4 4.9
Rolonda Jumbo 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.3 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 3.4 3.4 3.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 5.0 4.0
Carolyn Bethel 33.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.4 3.0
Kelly Fruth 50.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Jamie Shrader 62.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vanessa Estrada 67.0




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 0.4% 100.0% 0.4 0.4 2
3 31.2% 7.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 28.9 2.4 3
4 40.6% 0.0% 0.0 40.5 0.0 4
5 16.9% 0.1% 0.0 16.9 0.0 5
6 6.4% 6.4 6
7 2.6% 2.6 7
8 1.4% 1.4 8
9 0.3% 0.3 9
10 0.2% 0.2 10
11 0.1% 0.1 11
12 0.0% 0.0 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
Total 100% 2.8% 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 97.2 0.4 2.4




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Baylor 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 1.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.7% 1.0 0.0
Southern Illinois 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Ohio State 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Tulsa 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Kansas 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Portland 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Total 0.1
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 2.0